The Fall of the Wall

In trying to set up a decent server to host downloads of my new documentary, I have become an accidental Linux convert. Microsoft, you see, has undertaken a disasterous policy regarding its Windows platform recently. In order to curb casual piracy of Windows XP (letting one's friend borrow the installation disk), Microsoft has implemented the Windows Product Activation (WPA) scheme. This plan only allows one copy of Windows per installation of Windows. These days if you want to use Windows, you have to hook into Microsoft's database to receive updates and security software. Now Microsoft is keeping a massive database of serial numbers. If yours appears twice in their database, even if it's just a reinstallation, you are up a creek. A big notification that you might be a "victim of software piracy" flashes on the screen. In reality, you are a victim of Microsoft's new policy of stonewalling anything suspicious. The problem is that reinstallation of Windows becomes a major headache and the policy is even affecting people using Windows fresh from the box.

I predict that this policy is going to push massive numbers of people toward platform alternatives like open-source Linux. And not just because I believe the world revolves around me. The problems with WPA are so significant and the Linux alternatives so appealing and sophisticated (and FREE!) at this point, that Microsoft is in for a surprise.

I have been experimenting with two of the more user-friendly "distributions" (operating system and software packages) available: Ark Linux and Freespire. Compared with the last time I looked at Linux - in 1998 when they released their first off-the-shelf platform, Caldera - things have changed quite a bit. The interface is gorgeous for both of these. It feels great. It's also much leaner and quicker. One major change is a panel that accesses a database of free Linux open source software. You just find what you want to install of 1000 programs organized nicely, click it, and it installs. That can't be done with proprietary software, where you have to hunt down each program, download it individually, wonder if it has malware, and (for me) find a crack for it. Now I don't feel like such a criminal. Plus, Linux is virtually spyware and virus free, a big, big plus.

Enough of my sales pitch. My point here is that Microsoft is making a big business mistake (one likely to be made by big business). Their strong suit is that Windows is so ubiquitous that it seems there is no alternative. And for very sophisticated programs - like music and video production - there isn't (outside of Mac). Windows still has 95% of the operating systems. Probably half of these are pirated. So Microsoft is going to squeeze this lemon a bit. The problem is that Microsoft's power lies in the fact that theirs is the default operating system, whether people are pirating it or not. With the new WPA policy, Microsoft is threatening the very thing that allows it monopoly power. Microsoft is tempting people to switch paradigms. The company should be giving Windows away for free if they want to keep their platform hegemony.

I think a big boom has got to happen sooner or later. A critical mass of people-friendly Linux platforms will form and Microsoft is going to do something to ignite it. I think it's happening right now.